On March 8th, I attained the ripe old age of "threescore and ten years," but according to official statistics, I am dead. Men only live to be 69. I didn't like that statistic so I kept looking and found another that says I will live to be 83.5 years of age.  Statistics are great! You can make them say whatever you like.

Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart died in the prime of life at 35, but that was nothing unusual in his time. Many died as infants, others in wars or from diseases. The black plague killed about one third of all Europeans in the 17th century; 76,000 died in Vienna in 1769!       

Consider the situation in early America. A large number of  early colonists died within a few short years of their arrival in the new world, but the effect of European immigration on native populations was devastating! Estimates of how many people were living in the Americas when Columbus arrived range from 8.4 million to 112.5 million persons, but geographer William Denevan uses a "consensus count" of about 54 million people. This is  reasonable since there were about 25 million Aztecs and 12 million Incas. According to the lowest estimates, 80% of these native Americans died of diseases imported from Europe by 1600!

All this does NOT mean, however, that there were few older people living in previous times. The age-spread of people living in Mozart's day was probably not much different from today. True, many babies died, but people also had more babies. Many people died in the prime of life, but numerous others lived to a ripe old age. I assume that older women outnumbered older men just as they do today.

There are at least four reasons for the increased life expectancy reported today.

1) Infant mortality has been reduced by introducing strict sanitary rules and taking certain precautions.

2) Modern medical procedures extend lives of those who would have died a century ago.

3) Relatively few Americans die in wars.

Many are critical of President Bush for leading us into a war that has cost 5,000 lives in five years, but Americans have suffered fewer casualties in Iraq than in any other war we have fought. Had we not reacted swiftly and forcefully after 9-11, the number of civilian casualties due to terrorist attacks would have been conceivably higher.

4) Cheating and juggling of statistics.

According to official government statistics, about 220 out of 100,000 citizens die of heart failure each year. Actually, every death is due to heart failure but such a statistic would be worthless, so only those with defective hearts are counted. When it comes to cancer, the rules are reversed. Statistics show that nearly 200 out of 100,000 die of cancer, but cancer is merely a disease which attacks vital organs (or the blood in the case of leukemia) until they no longer function properly, ultimately leading to heart failure. Accidental death, homicide and suicide are other reported causes of death, but in reality, these are only physical acts which lead to death. I call this juggling statistics.

 

CHEATING

A million babies are aborted each year in the United States and these are not counted as deaths even if they are still very much alive when removed from their mother's bodies (desirable for organ transplants). Those babies are not even regarded as statistics. That constitutes cheating in my book (see February 22 blog entry)!